Earthquake Predictions for 2001

January 2021

Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time.  Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of January 2021 are provided below and for the rest of the year predictions will be added by the end of March 2021 when the model is expected to be developed with a reasonable degree of confidence. Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).

 

Probability Date and Time (GMT)Duration, hours
   
High January 12,   4:00 — 8:00 4
   
MediumJanuary 1,  0:00 – Jan 2,  0:0024
 January 6,  0:00 – 9:009
 January 9,  12:00 – Jan 10,  2:0014
 January 12,  9:00 – 12:003
 January 15,  10:00 – Jan 16,  4:0018
 January 18,  20:00 – Jan 19,  7:0011
   
LowJanuary 2, 00:00 – Jan 5,  23:0096
 January 6, 10:00 – Jan 9, 11:0073
 January 10,  3:00 – Jan 12, 3:0048
 January 12,  13:00 – Jan 15, 9:0068
 January 16,  5:00 – Jan 18, 19:0062
 January 21,  12:00 – 22:0010
 January 24,   9:00 – 12:003
 January 26,  11:00 – 21:0010
 January 27,  4:00 – 23:0019
   
 Total hours out of 744 hours472 hours

 

 

Date Posted: January 31, 2021

There were two earthquakes of magnitude 6.9 and higher in March.  The March 21st  occurred during the predicted date and time. (March 21,  12:00 – 22:00) and the March 23rd did not.

January 21:   Region: Philippine Islands region, Geographic coordinates: 5.007N, 127.517E, Magnitude: 7.0, Universal Time (UTC): 21 Jan 2021   12:23:06, Time near the Epicenter: 21 Jan 2021 21:23:06

January 23:  Region: South Shetland Islands, Geographic coordinates: 61.848S, 55.559W, Magnitude: 6.9, Universal Time (UTC): 23 Jan 2021 23:36:51 Time near the Epicenter: 23 Jan 2021   19:36:51

February 2021 

Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of February 2021 are provided below and for the rest of the year predictions are scheduled to be added by the end of March 2021 when the model is expected to be developed with a reasonable degree of confidence. Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).

Probability Date and Time (GMT)Duration, hours
   
HighFebruary 2,   11:00 — 18:00 8
 February 11,  1:00 – Feb 12, 19:00 39
   
MediumFebruary 2,  7:00 – 10:004
 February 2,  19:00 – Feb 3, 5:0011
 February 5,  17:00 – 20:004
 February 8,  10:00 – 21:0012
 February 10,  19:00 – Feb 11,  4:0010
 February 12,  20:00 – Feb 13,  15:0020
   
LowFebruary 1, 0:00 – Feb 2,  6:0031
 February 3, 6:00 – Feb 4, 4:0023
 February 4,  5:00 – Feb 5, 16:0039
 February 5,  21:00 – Feb 8, 9:0060
 February 8,  22:00 – Feb 10, 18:0044
 February 13,  16:00 – Feb 14, 12:0019
 February 14,   23:00 – Feb 16, 10:0036
 February 28,  20:00 – 23:004
   
 Total hours out of 672 hours364 hours

Date Posted: February 28, 2021

There were two earthquakes of magnitude 6.9 and higher in February as listed below.  Both occurred on predicted date and time.

February 10: Region: southeast of the Loyalty Islands, Geographic coordinates:     23.279S, 171.489E,Magnitude: 7.7, Universal Time (UTC): 10 Feb 2021       13:20:01, Time near the Epicenter:     11 Feb 2021 00:20:01

February 13:  Region: near the east coast of Honshu, Japan, Geographic coordinates:     37.686N, 141.992E, Magnitude: 7.1, Universal Time (UTC):13 Feb 2021 14:07:50, Time near the Epicenter: 13 Feb 2021       23:07:50

March 2021 

Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of March 2021 are provided below and for the rest of the year predictions are scheduled to be added by the end of March 2021 when the model is expected to be developed with a reasonable degree of confidence. Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).

Date and Time (GMT)Duration, hours
  
March 1,   00:00 — March 2, 00:0025
March 2,  13:00 – 19:00 7
March 6,  7:00 – March 8, 2:0044
March 9,  10:00 – March 10, 20:0035
March 14,  5:00 – March 15, 17:0037
March 17,  21:00 – March 25, 11:00183
March 28,  6:00 – March 30, 1:0034
  
 Out of a total of 744 hours365 hours

Date Posted: March 31, 2021

There were four earthquakes of magnitude 6.9 and higher in March as listed below. Three of them occurred on March 4 and the last one on March 20 as listed below. The first three did not occur on predicted date and time. The last one occurred on the predicted date and time.

March 4: Region: off the east coast of the North Island of New Zealand, Geographic coordinates:37.563S, 179.444E, Magnitude: 7.3, Universal Time (UTC):   4 Mar 2021  13:27:36, Time near the Epicenter:  5 Mar 2021  02:27:36

March 4: Region: Kermadec Islands, New Zealand, Geographic coordinates: 29.613S, 177.843W, Magnitude:  7.4, Universal Time (UTC): 4 Mar 2021      17:41:26, Time near the Epicenter: 5 Mar 2021 06:41:26

March 4: Region:  Kermadec Islands, New Zealand, Geographic coordinates: 29.729S, 177.262W, Magnitude: 8.1,  Universal Time (UTC): 4 Mar 2021 19:28:30, Time near the Epicenter: 5 Mar 2021  08:28:30

March 20: Region:  near the east coast of Honshu, Japan, Geographic coordinates: 38.475N, 141.607E, Magnitude: 7.0, Universal Time (UTC): 20 Mar 2021    09:09:45, Time near the Epicenter: 20 Mar 2021   18:09:45

April 2021 

Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of April 2021 are provided below and for the rest of the year predictions are scheduled to be added in near future when the model is expected to be developed with a reasonable degree of confidence. Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT)

Date and Time (GMT)Duration, hours
  
April 2,  05:00 — April 7, 00:00116
April 10,  13:00 – April 11, 16:00 28
April 11,  21:00 – April 15, 13:0089
April 16,  10:00 – April 22, 3:00138
April 24,  22:00 – April 28, 4:0079
April 29,  13:00 – April 29, 19:007
  
 Out of a total of 720 hours457 Hours

 

 

Date Posted: April 30, 2021

There was no earthquake of magnitude 6.9 and higher in April.

May 2021 

Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of May 2021 are provided below and for the rest of the year predictions are scheduled to be added in future when the model is expected to be developed with a reasonable degree of confidence. Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).

Date and Time (GMT)Duration, hours
  
May 1,  00:00 – 22:0023
May 3,  9:00 – May 4, 15:00 31
May 7,  20:00 – May 12, 12:00113
May 15,  16:00 – May 19, 6:0087
May 19,  15:00 – May 20, 5:0015
May 22,  8:00 – May 23, 6:0023
May 26,  0:00 – 20:0021
May 28,  7:00 – May 29, 0:0018
May 31,  7:00 – May 31, 23:0017
  

 Out of a total of 744 hours

348 Hours

Date Posted: May 31, 2021

There was one earthquake of magnitude 6.9 and higher in May, as listed below. It missed the prediction date by about 14 hours.

May 21:  Region: Southern Qinghai, China, Geographic coordinates: 34.586N, 98.255E, Magnitude: 7.4, Universal Time (UTC): 21 May 2021  18:04:14, Time near the Epicenter: 22 May 2021   02:04:14

June 2021 

Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of June 2021 are provided below and for the rest of the year predictions are scheduled to be added in future when the model is expected to be developed with a reasonable degree of confidence. Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).

Date and Time (GMT)Duration, hours
  
June 1,  00:00 – 14:0015
June 4, 2:00 – June 5, 4:0027
June 7,  9:00 – June 8, 4:00 20
June 11,  22:00 – June 12, 23:0026
June 16, 15:00 – June 17, 9:0019
June 18,  16:00 – June 19, 15:0024
June 20,   5:00 –  June 24,  11:00103
June 29,  3:00 – 17:0015
  
Out of a total of 720 hours249 hours

Date Posted: June 30, 2021

There was no earthquake of magnitude 6.9 and higher in June.

July 2021 

Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of July 2021 are provided below and for the rest of the year predictions are scheduled to be added in future when the model is expected to be developed with a reasonable degree of confidence. Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).

Date and Time (GMT)Duration, hours
  
July 1,  09:00 – July 2, 11:0027
July 3, 18:00 – July 6, 11:0066
July 9,  4:00 – July 10, 4:00 25
July 13,  1:00 – July 15, 0:0048
July 15,  21:00 – July 16, 20:0024
July 21, 18:00 – July 23, 5:0036
July 26,  15:00 – July 27, 17:0027
July 28,   17:00 –  July 29,  18:0026
July 31,  19:00 – 24:006
  
Out of a total of 744 hours285 hours

Date Posted: July 31, 2021

There was one earthquake of magnitude 8.2 in July and it occurred on July 29 as below and it did occur on the predicted date and time.

July 29: Region: Alaska Peninsula, Geographic coordinates: 55.474N, 157.917W, Magnitude: 8.2, Universal Time (UTC):  29 Jul 2021  06:15:50, Time near the Epicenter: 28 Jul 2021  22:15:50

August 2021 

Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of August 2021 are provided below. Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).

Date and Time (GMT)Duration, hours
  
Aug 1,  0:00 – Aug 2, 7:0032
Aug 4,  23:00 – Aug 6, 11:0037
Aug 8,  4:00 – Aug 9, 22:0043
Aug 12,  2:00 – Aug 13, 1:0024
Aug 17  22:00 – Aug 20, 8:0059
Aug 23,  0:00 – Aug 24, 9:0034
Aug 25,  1:00 – Aug 26, 2:0026
Aug 28,  17:00 – Aug 30, 5:0037
  

 Out of a total of 744 hours

292 Hours

Date Posted: August 31, 2021

While there were eight earthquakes of magnitude 6.9 and higher in August, two pairs of them occurred within less than an hour apart and therefore they are counted as one thus giving a total of 6. All eight occurred as below with two pairs on August 12 and 14. 

While the model missed 4 out of 8, this month’s data provided a great opportunity to improve the model performance.  The improved model captures all of the earthquakes of 6.9 and higher occurred so far this year. 

August 11: Region: Mindanao, Philippines, Geographic coordinates: 6.455N, 126.742E, Magnitude: 7.1, Universal Time (UTC): 11 Aug 2021  17:46:14, Time near the Epicenter: 12 Aug 2021 01:46:14

August 12 at 18:32 UTC: Region: South Sandwich Islands region, Geographic coordinates: 57.596S, 25.187W, Magnitude:7.5, Universal Time (UTC):  12 Aug 2021  18:32:55, Time near the Epicenter: 12 Aug 2021 16:32:55

August 12 at 18:35 UTC: Region: South Sandwich Islands region, Geographic coordinates 58.416S, 25.321W, Magnitude: 8.1,Universal Time (UTC):  12 Aug 2021    18:35:20, Time near the Epicenter:  12 Aug 2021  16:35:20

August 14 at 12:29 UTC: Region: Haiti region, Geographic coordinates:  18.352N, 73.480W, Magnitude:  7.2, Universal Time (UTC):  14 Aug 2021   12:29:09, Time near the Epicenter: 14 Aug 2021 08:29:09

August 14 at 11:57 UTC: Region: Alaska Peninsula, Geographic coordinates:   55.084N, 157.540W, Magnitude:6.9, Universal Time (UTC): 14 Aug 2021 11:57:44, Time near the Epicenter:  14 Aug 2021  03:57:44

August 16: Region: South Sandwich Islands region, Geographic coordinates: 58.381S, 23.332W, Magnitude:  6.9, Universal Time (UTC):  16 Aug 2021  11:10:36, Time near the Epicenter: 16 Aug 2021  09:10:36

August 18: Region: Vanuatu, Geographic coordinates:  14.892S, 167.085E, Magnitude:  6.8, Universal Time (UTC):  18 Aug 2021 10:10:05, Time near the Epicenter: 18 Aug 2021  21:10:05

August 22: Region: South Sandwich Islands region, Geographic coordinates:      60.303S,  24.999W, Magnitude: 7.0, Universal Time (UTC): 22 Aug 2021   21:33:21, Time near the Epicenter: 22 Aug 2021  19:33:21

September 2021 

Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of September 2021 are provided below and these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).

Date and Time (GMT)

Duration, hours

Sept 1,  14:00 – Sept 2, 11:0022
Sept 4,  11:00 – Sept 5, 2:0016
Sept 7,  10:00 – Sept 11, 0:0087
Sept 13,  8:00 – Sept 15, 13:0054
Sept 18,  13:00 – Sept 24, 18:00150
Sept 26,  17:00 – Sept 29, 19:0074
  
Out of a total of 720 hours403 Hours

 

 

Date Posted: September 30, 2021

There was only one earthquake of magnitude 6.9 and higher in September and it occurred on September 8 at 01:47 GMT as below and it did occur on a predicted date and time.

September 8Region: near the coast of Guerrero, Mexico, Geographic coordinates:16.950N, 99.788W, Magnitude:  7.0, Universal Time (UTC): 8 Sep 2021  01:47:47, Time near the Epicenter:  7 Sep 2021 20:47:47

October 2021 

Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of September 2021 are provided below and these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).

Date and Time (GMT)

Duration, hours

  

Oct 2,  23:00 – Oct 3, 14:00

16

Oct 4,  9:00 – Oct 8, 13:00

101

Oct 11,  0:00 – Oct 15, 22:00

118

Oct 16,  6:00 – Oct 22, 4:00

142

Oct 24,  8:00 – Oct 26, 0:00

40

Oct 26,  5:00 – Oct 27, 3:00

23

  

Out of a total of 744 hours

440 Hours

Date Posted: October 31, 2021

There were two earthquakes of magnitude 6.9 and higher in October and they occurred as below and one of them occurred on the predicted date and time.

October 2: Region: Vanuatu region, Geographic coordinates: 21.104S, 174.894E, Magnitude:7.3,Universal Time (UTC): 2 Oct 2021 06:29:19, Time near the Epicenter: 2 Oct 2021 19:29:19

October 11: Region: Alaska Peninsula, Geographic coordinates: 56.258N, 156.553W, Magnitude: 6.9,Universal Time (UTC):11 Oct 2021 09:10:25, Time near the Epicenter:11 Oct 2021 01:10:25

November 2021 

Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of November 2021 are provided below and these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).

Date and Time (GMT)Duration, hours
Nov 1,  00:00 – Nov 2, 2:0027
Nov 2,  6:00 – Nov 4, 0:0043
Nov 7,  15:00 – Nov 9, 12:0047
Nov 10,  12:00 – Nov 12, 12:001
Nov 19,  23:00 – Nov 22, 8:0058
  
Out of a total of 720 hours176 Hours
  

Date Posted: November 30, 2021

There was one earthquakes of magnitude 7.5 in November (details below), it and missed the prediction date. But it allowed to improve the model further capturing all the earthquakes of 2021 with significant (very low p-value) improvement.

November 2: Region: northern Peru, Geographic coordinates: 4.490S, 76.846W, Magnitude: 7.5, Universal Time (UTC): 28 Nov 2021, 10:52:13, Time near the Epicenter:28 Nov 2021  05:52:13

December 2021 

Based on a bit more aggressively tuned earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of December 2021 are provided below and these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).

                 Date and Time (GMT)

              Duration, hours

 

 

       Dec 1,  00:00 –  9:00

                       10

      Dec 4,  6:00 – 12:00

                        7

      Dec 7,  17:00 –  Dec 8, 13:00

                        21

      Dec 9,  11:00 –  Dec 10, 17:00

                        31

      Dec 17,  16:00 –  Dec 19, 0:00

                        33

      Dec 22,  11:00 – 12:00

                        2

      Dec 27,  4:00 –  Dec 30, 7:00

                        76

 


 

               Out of a total of 744 hours

                        180 Hours

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