Jagdish C. Maheshri, Ph.D.


E-mail Exchange With Jagdish Maheshri

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Jagdish Maheshri wrote us:

Subject: request for looking into my paranormal claim
Date: Tue, 18 Mar 2003 21:35:13 EST
From: JMaheshri@aol.com
To: skeptic@ntskeptics.org

In a message dated 3/18/2003 4:20:08 PM Central Standard Time, challenge@randi.org writes:

There's this group:
North Texas Skeptics (NTS)
John Blanton
PO Box 111794
Carrollton TX 75011-1794
skeptic@ntskeptics.org
www.ntskeptics.org

John Blanton
North Texas Skeptics Group

Dear Mr. Blanton,

Randi Foundation has recommended me to contact you for looking into my claim.

It's about astrology. I'm attaching the material that I sent in the mail to Randi Foundation as I am taking the paranormal challenge. Basically I'm trying to define the procedure (I would need lot of help from you in doing so) that would be completely fair and scientific.

Attached word files are:

JREF application_letter
JREF_test
The brief description of the claim is:

Based on birth information alone (birth date, hospital-recorded birth time, and birth place) I, the applicant, will provide astrology-based readings for a group of five totally unknown subjects at a time. A double-blinded test methodology will be employed. (The preliminary procedural details are provided in the attached documents describing the entire test with definition of terms used in the proposed test and an illustration example. Please review all the test details and provide me with your comments. A positive test result constitutes achieving 5 hits in 10 or less runs.) I'm also attaching a spreadsheet detailing the probability calculations. (james_randi_challenge.exl file). According to my calculations 50 percent probability for getting 5 hits require 23 or more runs. For 5 hits in 20 runs it's 37% probability, 5 hits in 15 runs it's 16.4% and 5 hits in 10 runs it's 3.2%. My question is what's the criteria you use for validity of my claim....how much improvement I have to show over the normal 50 percent probability.

I hope this information would help expedite in looking into my claim. Looking forward to hearing from you soon. Thanks again.

Regards,

Jagdish C. Maheshri, Ph.D.
Astro Insight
www.astroinsight.com
email: JMaheshri@aol.com

[Dr. Maheshri's address and phone number]

Dr. Maheshri attached the following three files:

james_randi_challenge.xls
JREF_applicationletter.doc
JREF_test.doc

We responded

Subject: Re: request for looking into my paranormal claim
Date: Tue, 18 Mar 2003 21:23:15 -0600
From: John Blanton <skeptic@ntskeptics.org>
To: JMaheshri@aol.com

Dr. Maheshri:

Your challenge is interesting and something that we may be able to do. I am forwarding your note to the other underwriters, and I am forwarding your attachments by a separate mailing.

I quickly read through the test document and only found one concern. It seems that the minute recorded on the birth certificate may not be the exact minute of birth of the person in question. I am not sure how you can reconcile this. Can you provide additional details? I will wait for your response. My own response may be a little slow. I have been out of town for several days, and I have a backlog of other tasks to attend to for a few days.

In the mean time, please make sure you read the online copy of the NTS Challenge at the following URL. Let me know when you have done this and tell me if you have any questions concerning the protocol:

http://www.ntskeptics.org/challenge/challeng.htm

Best regards,

John Blanton
--
The North Texas Skeptics
http://www.ntskeptics.org

After a long delay due to other commitments we finally got back to Dr. Maheshri

Subject: Re: request for looking into my paranormal claim
Date: Mon, 12 May 2003 21:56:29 -0500
From: John Blanton <skeptic@ntskeptics.org>
To: JMaheshri@aol.com

To: Jagdish C. Maheshri

Thank you for being so patient.

I have reviewed the documentation you sent us. I have also provided it to the other underwriter for their review. Here is what we understand:

1. You claim to be able to write astrological "charts" for anonymous individuals based on their time and location of birth. Further you claim that the individuals will be able to pick out their own charts from among others, to a given certainty, which you state.

My first note is that this is not what we call a paranormal claim. Please excuse me if I seem picky. Allow me to restate your case as a paranormal claim:

2. You claim that the through the use of astrology (or other paranormal means) you can accurately describe a person unknown to you. That's a paranormal claim. That's the kind of thing we can test.

We agree that you may be able to write the set of charts you describe in the documents you sent us and that people will recognize their own charts to the degree of certainty you state (five hits out of ten). Such an occurrence is possible from pure chance with a certain degree of probability even if no paranormal ability is involved.

We are prepared to test item 2 above if you are interested. We will devise the test. Here are some concerns:

3. If I give you the time and place of birth of a person, you can just look up the person in the public records and find out all you need to know about that person. Can we get some relief on this point?

4. Before we enter into any kind of formal test with you, we want to see whether you really can do as you claim. If you can't we will just drop the whole issue and not waste our collective time any further. Please let me know what you would consider a fair demonstration.

Bear in mind, that if we test your supposed ability with astrology we will want a more stringent test than the one you have described for us. The test we will propose will require a one in a billion (1:1,000,000,000) probability of winning by chance alone. Of course, if you can really write accurate charts using astrology you will surely win. Anyhow, it will be a test both you and we agree to. We will work with you to come to some sort of agreement. If this is OK with you then let me know.

Best regards,

John Blanton
--
The North Texas Skeptics
http://www.ntskeptics.org

Dr. Maheshri responded:

Subject: Re: request for looking into my paranormal claim
Date: Tue, 13 May 2003 12:29:21 EDT
From: JMaheshri@aol.com
To: skeptic@ntskeptics.org

John Blanton:

Thank you for your reply. I have tried to respond to (point by point) your concerns and questions and wherever appropriate provided my explanation as follows. Please review and respond. Thank you.

Best regards,

Jagdish Maheshri
Astro Insight
www.astroinsight.com

First of all, the very basis of my suggested test was originated from James Randi Foundation for the following reasons:

1. It's a totally double blinded test. Meaning I don't know the subject's identity (only thing I'm provided with is birth date, birth place, and birth time (hospital recorded)), and the subject doesn't know who's reading he or she is choosing that describes him or her as close as possible.

2. One of the strongest criticism of astrology is that any given reading based on astrology is so general that it applies to a majority of people. That's the reason this test (which I believe is more difficult than the one you suggesting) is devised which will force me to only focus on the features that distinguish one person from other and not the qualities that overlap.

3. All the pertaining information about the subjects that will be used in test will be with one (neutral party or judge) person until the test is over. I will not demand any information (besides birth information as stated above) about subjects but would like verification of the same information that was provided to me after the test is over (e.g. picture, birth certificate, etc.),

That certain degree of probability (which is the same as randomly picked chart) is 1 hit out of 24 (50 percent probability....please refer to my spread sheet)

How can I look up the person if I don't know his name or the hospital he is born? One way I could alleviate your concern is by the time frame that you will provide me to do my analysis.

I strongly suggest that you revisit the documents I provided you (since it's been informally approved by James Randi Foundation). If you still insist on other approach then please provide me with details for a test that you will consider a fair one.

In my opinion the current state of astrology is far from the level that you are expecting (one in billion). That's why I have been involved in astrological research for a long time and would like to expand further until people stop ridiculing it. I guess the basic question we should ask is what would be a significant deviation from a probability based on random distribution this test should provide that will be acceptable. Think about it. In my opinion, with astrology if I could improve the odds by ten fold....that's a significant deviation.

We responded:

Subject: NTS Paranormal Challenge
Date: Tue, 13 May 2003 21:23:03 -0500
From: John Blanton <skeptic@ntskeptics.org>
To: JMaheshri@aol.com

To: Jagdish Maheshri

Again, thanks.

Regarding your reference to the James Randi Educational Foundation. We are quite fond of that organization, but we have no connection with it. So, we are not bound by anything done by the JREF.

We agree the test you describe would be double blinded provided a certain sticking point could be avoided. See below.

We agree that having the subject pick his own reading from among many avoids problems with subjectivity.

About the information you demand regarding the subjects, I believe that information can be used to closely, or uniquely in some cases, identify the subjects. See below.

Picking a winning hand, card, lottery number, etc., is not a paranormal event, and doing so will not win the NTS Challenge. People do these things every day, and we don't go around awarding them the prize. To win the prize you have to conclusively demonstrate you have a paranormal ability. The test is just a means of demonstrating the truth of your claim. I hope you see the distinction.

Allow me to provide a trivial example: Bob claims he can pick the one black marble out of a container of 10,000 marbles. We provide the container and the marbles, and Bob does not get a peek beforehand. We would not take this bet. It's a sucker bet. We put up $10,000. Bob puts up nothing. He may pick the black marble. He may not. We are the only ones who stand to lose. We are not in the gambling business. Especially when the customer does not have to put up a bet.

You want to know how you might look up a person given his time and place of birth. Perhaps I misunderstood what you meant by time and place of birth. I thought you meant the time and the place where the person was born. Meaning street address, hospital name, ward number plus day, hour, and minute. This information can be used to trace a person.

Now if by place of birth you mean state or country, that gives us some room for comfort. Just how much do you need to know?

For a demonstration we might be willing to go along with your protocol. Please be specific as to what information you need. We will have to go to a great deal of trouble to find the birth records of ten non obvious people. Frankly, we were looking for a way to see your demonstration without having to go to that much trouble.

Also, if you need to consult public records or to just inquire around for information before producing your readings, please let us know in advance. Can you come to Dallas and produce the charts in our presence?

Your last comment involves the level of reliability of astrology. You seem to figuratively gag at the 1:1,000,000,000 probability I insist on. I will convince you this is not unreasonable. Here is a parable:

We have a box with 5 black and 5 white marbles. Bill says he has the paranormal ability to pick black marbles (usual drill, blindfolded and such). Bill can't do it with 100% certainty. In fact he can do it with only 51% certainty.

Now you and I can both devise a test for Bill's ability. We just have him perform enough trials. If he picks 51% or better for the complete run, there is a 1/1,000,000,000 probability he has succeeded by chance alone. Provided there are enough trials.

If astrology can succeed better than chance, we can test for that. You just have to tell us how much better than chance, and we can devise the test. Do you agree?

I am asking the other underwriters to assist me in obtaining the birth information you will need. We will use it when everybody is ready,

Best regards,

John Blanton
--
The North Texas Skeptics
http://www.ntskeptics.org

Dr. Maheshri responded:

Subject: Re: NTS Paranormal Challenge
Date: Fri, 16 May 2003 13:54:33 EDT
From: JMaheshri@aol.com To: skeptic@ntskeptics.org

To: John Blanton

Thanks for your prompt reply. I have provided my inputs and comments as below.

Of course you are not bound by anything done by the JREF. The point I was trying to make it was we (meaning I and JREF) went through a laborious process to define the test that would prove the paranormal claim.

Speaking of paranormal, I must confess that I'm not psychic or magician or clairvoyant. Being a chemical engineer I have been interested for last 30 years in figuring out what would be the scientific basis if human behavior and potential is influence by planets and their unique orientation in space about the place where a person is born. In other words, although I cannot prove it as a physical science, my method is based on the research I have been doing in observing if there are any meaningful correlations between the planetary motion and the time of birth that would shape a particular personality.

Thus, I need time of birth with in one minute accuracy...(that's why I have asked for hospital recorded birth times) and of course, birth date and place of birth (town or city...I use the longitude and latitude of the place in my calculations).

What you mean by closely or uniquely?

Again I'm not a psychic or magician. So this test is not like picking a card or lottery number. each reading would based on person's birth information. And I'm saying (or claiming) that there's a striking correlation between the planetary positions at the time of person's birth and the person's characteristics.

Again this is not gambling as you eluded here.

Again I only need the city or town where person is born (in addition to his birth date and time). That's all.

I'm open for your suggestion. If you want to try a mini-test....that's fine with me. But it's important to define the details of the entire process as clearly so that it's fair for both parties. My real concern is about having to receive a fair treatment.

Let's first agree on the protocol with all the details. If we go for 10 charts...I would need at least 2-3 days to work on them....since it's a test. Then I'm willing come to Dallas.

How do you come up with 1/1,000,000,000 probability for this example? I don't see it that way.

I think I have made this point (about better than a chance) in the spreadsheet I sent you very first time.

Best regards,

Jagdish Maheshri
Astro Insight
www.astroinsight.com
337 478 2055

We responded:

Subject: NTS Paranormal Challenge
Date: Fri, 16 May 2003 19:38:15 -0500
From: John Blanton <skeptic@ntskeptics.org>
To: JMaheshri@aol.com

To: Jagdish Maheshri

Thank you. Your timely response have been very helpful. I will answer the points you raised.

Using astrology to describe a person you have never met is a paranormal ability (happening, or whatever). It's paranormal. That's our definition, and that's why we use the term. We don't think you are a psychic.

We can't get you the birth within one minute accuracy. Hospitals don't record births that accurately. The baby is born. Someone looks at a clock and makes a note on a form. That's if everything is going well. The clock may not be accurate to one minute. The nurse may not look at the clock at the exact moment of birth. As a matter of fact, I am right now looking at an official State of Texas birth certificate. It has a month, a day, a year, and a county. That's all. We can't guarantee the time. If that's a sticking point, then we are through here.

By closely or uniquely, I mean if the information you request were available as a public record (minute and location), you could just go to the public records and get the name of the person born at that time at that location and then proceed to find current information on the individual in question.

The way you have requested the test is exactly like picking a lottery number. You could write ten charts blindly (not using astrology). The probability that five of the ten subjects would choose their charts (the ones we arbitrarily assigned to them) is about 3%. In brief, just by drawing up ten random charts you would have a 3% chance of winning the $10,000. It is exactly gambling, because you really are unable to use planetary positions or anything like that to describe people you don't know. We are prepared to demonstrate that.

For a demonstration we will use the protocol you provided to us. We will take your charts and remove any information keyed to the birth information. For example, if a subject were born on the 4th of July we would take out any references to the subject's planning to celebrate his birthday this summer.

Sorry about the time of birth. Most likely will not be able to get that for you.

Regarding how we come up with a 1/1,000,000,000 probability: Here is an example. Let's assume your protocol gives you a 3% probability of winning by luck alone. But you say you can do this every time. We might ask you to pass the test described in your protocol six times in a row without missing a single trial. A trial consists of the ten charts in two groups of five as you described. A miss is less than five subjects in a trial pick their own charts. The probability you could do the six trials in a row without missing is in the order of 1/1,000,000,000. Please let me know if you agree with this calculation.

This might sound stringent, but you claim you can do each ten-subject trial without missing. If you want to claim something less, then let us know up front.

Best regards,

John Blanton
--
The North Texas Skeptics
http://www.ntskeptics.org

Dr. Maheshri has responded:

Subject: Re: NTS Paranormal Challenge
Date: Fri, 16 May 2003 22:14:11 EDT
From: JMaheshri@aol.com
To: skeptic@ntskeptics.org

To: John Blanton,

Thanks for your prompt response. Here are my comments and concerns:

I have no problem with your definition.

Being in this profession long enough I know getting accurate (to a minute) birthtime is not easy. However, I will have to assume the time hospital record is closest to the actual birth time. This is the risk I have to take. I would only like those subjects whose birth times are recorded to minutes. Because that can make a big difference.

First of all I would never have dreamt I could do that. Next, how would I know which hospital to go to? Again I believe hospitals just don't give out birth information to anybody like that. Anyway if this a sticking point just provide me longitude and latitude of the place. But in that case I would know the place (city or town) from the map. I really don't know how to resolve this point to satisfy you.

If you think I'm not going to use their astrological chart to describe people....then I don't know what to say. I thought skeptics are the most open minded people. I will provide detailed astrological charts of all the subjects to the neutral judge (the only person who will have information about the chart and the respective subject during the test...by the way, how we going to select such a neutral person)?.

[Dr. Maheshri is responding to our plan to remove birth-specific information from the readings.]

Of course.

Without birth time it just won't be possible for me to take this challenge.

It takes good 2 hours to analyze one chart. I wasn't planning on six trials. I would have already spent about 20 hours to do 10 people's charts. JERF were willing to go for one trial.

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