Posted December 31, 2020
Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of January 2021 are provided below and for the rest of the year predictions will be added by the end of March 2021 when the model is expected to be developed with a reasonable degree of confidence. Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).
January 2021
| Probability | Date and Time (GMT) | Duration, hours |
| High | January 12, 4:00 — 8:00 | 4 |
| Medium | January 1, 0:00 – Jan 2, 0:00 | 24 |
| January 6, 0:00 – 9:00 | 9 | |
| January 9, 12:00 – Jan 10, 2:00 | 14 | |
| January 12, 9:00 – 12:00 | 3 | |
| January 15, 10:00 – Jan 16, 4:00 | 18 | |
| January 18, 20:00 – Jan 19, 7:00 | 11 | |
| Low | January 2, 00:00 – Jan 5, 23:00 | 96 |
| January 6, 10:00 – Jan 9, 11:00 | 73 | |
| January 10, 3:00 – Jan 12, 3:00 | 48 | |
| January 12, 13:00 – Jan 15, 9:00 | 68 | |
| January 16, 5:00 – Jan 18, 19:00 | 62 | |
| January 21, 12:00 – 22:00 | 10 | |
| January 24, 9:00 – 12:00 | 3 | |
| January 26, 11:00 – 21:00 | 10 | |
| January 27, 4:00 – 23:00 | 19 | |
| Total hours out of 744 hours | 472 Hours |
Date Posted: January 31, 2021
There were two earthquakes of magnitude 6.9 and higher in March. The March 21st occurred during the predicted date and time. (March 21, 12:00 – 22:00) and the March 23rd did not.
January 21: Region: Philippine Islands region, Geographic coordinates: 5.007N, 127.517E, Magnitude: 7.0, Universal Time (UTC): 21 Jan 2021 12:23:06, Time near the Epicenter: 21 Jan 2021 21:23:06
January 23: Region: South Shetland Islands, Geographic coordinates: 61.848S, 55.559W, Magnitude: 6.9, Universal Time (UTC): 23 Jan 2021 23:36:51 Time near the Epicenter: 23 Jan 2021 19:36:51
February 2021
Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of February 2021 are provided below and for the rest of the year predictions are scheduled to be added by the end of March 2021 when the model is expected to be developed with a reasonable degree of confidence. Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).
| Probability | Date and Time (GMT) | Duration, hours |
| High | February 2, 11:00 — 18:00 | 8 |
| February 11, 1:00 – Feb 12, 19:00 | 39 | |
| Medium | February 2, 7:00 – 10:00 | 4 |
| February 2, 19:00 – Feb 3, 5:00 | 11 | |
| February 5, 17:00 – 20:00 | 4 | |
| February 8, 10:00 – 21:00 | 12 | |
| February 10, 19:00 – Feb 11, 4:00 | 10 | |
| February 12, 20:00 – Feb 13, 15:00 | 20 | |
| Low | February 1, 0:00 – Feb 2, 6:00 | 31 |
| February 3, 6:00 – Feb 4, 4:00 | 23 | |
| February 4, 5:00 – Feb 5, 16:00 | 39 | |
| February 5, 21:00 – Feb 8, 9:00 | 60 | |
| February 8, 22:00 – Feb 10, 18:00 | 44 | |
| February 13, 16:00 – Feb 14, 12:00 | 19 | |
| February 14, 23:00 – Feb 16, 10:00 | 36 | |
| February 28, 20:00 – 23:00 | 4 | |
| Total hours out of 672 hours | 364 Hours |
Date Posted: February 28, 2021
There were two earthquakes of magnitude 6.9 and higher in February as listed below. Both occurred on predicted date and time.
February 10: Region: southeast of the Loyalty Islands, Geographic coordinates: 23.279S, 171.489E, Magnitude: 7.7, Universal Time (UTC): 10 Feb 2021 13:20:01, Time near the Epicenter: 11 Feb 2021 00:20:01
February 13: Region: near the east coast of Honshu, Japan, Geographic coordinates: 37.686N, 141.992E, Magnitude: 7.1, Universal Time (UTC):13 Feb 2021 14:07:50, Time near the Epicenter: 13 Feb 2021 23:07:50
March 2021
Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of March 2021 are provided below and for the rest of the year predictions are scheduled to be added by the end of March 2021 when the model is expected to be developed with a reasonable degree of confidence. Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).
| Date and Time (GMT) | Duration, hours |
| March 1, 00:00 — March 2, 00:00 | 25 |
| March 2, 13:00 – 19:00 | 7 |
| March 6, 7:00 – March 8, 2:00 | 44 |
| March 9, 10:00 – March 10, 20:00 | 35 |
| March 14, 5:00 – March 15, 17:00 | 37 |
| March 17, 21:00 – March 25, 11:00 | 183 |
| March 28, 6:00 – March 30, 1:00 | 34 |
| Out of a total of 744 hours | 365 Hours |
Date Posted: March 31, 2021
There were four earthquakes of magnitude 6.9 and higher in March as listed below. Three of them occurred on March 4 and the last one on March 20 as listed below. The first three did not occur on predicted date and time. The last one occurred on the predicted date and time.
March 4: Region: off the east coast of the North Island of New Zealand, Geographic coordinates:37.563S, 179.444E, Magnitude: 7.3, Universal Time (UTC): 4 Mar 2021 13:27:36, Time near the Epicenter: 5 Mar 2021 02:27:36
March 4: Region: Kermadec Islands, New Zealand, Geographic coordinates: 29.613S, 177.843W, Magnitude: 7.4, Universal Time (UTC): 4 Mar 2021 17:41:26,Time near the Epicenter: 5 Mar 2021 06:41:26
March 4: Region: Kermadec Islands, New Zealand, Geographic coordinates: 29.729S, 177.262W, Magnitude: 8.1, Universal Time (UTC): 4 Mar 2021 19:28:30, Time near the Epicenter: 5 Mar 2021 08:28:30
March 20: Region: near the east coast of Honshu, Japan, Geographic coordinates: 38.475N, 141.607E, Magnitude: 7.0, Universal Time (UTC): 20 Mar 2021 09:09:45,Time near the Epicenter: 20 Mar 2021 18:09:45
April 2021
Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of April 2021 are provided below and for the rest of the year predictions are scheduled to be added in near future when the model is expected to be developed with a reasonable degree of confidence. Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).
| Date and Time (GMT) | Duration, hours |
| April 2, 05:00 — April 7, 00:00 | 116 |
| April 10, 13:00 – April 11, 16:00 | 28 |
| April 11, 21:00 – April 15, 13:00 | 89 |
| April 16, 10:00 – April 22, 3:00 | 138 |
| April 24, 22:00 – April 28, 4:00 | 79 |
| April 29, 13:00 – April 29, 19:00 | 7 |
| Out of a total of 720 hours | 457 Hours |
Date Posted: April 30, 2021
There was no earthquake of magnitude 6.9 and higher in April.
May 2021
Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of May 2021 are provided below and for the rest of the year predictions are scheduled to be added in future when the model is expected to be developed with a reasonable degree of confidence. Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).
| Date and Time (GMT) | Duration, hours |
| May 1, 00:00 – 22:00 | 23 |
| May 3, 9:00 – May 4, 15:00 | 31 |
| May 7, 20:00 – May 12, 12:00 | 113 |
| May 15, 16:00 – May 19, 6:00 | 87 |
| May 19, 15:00 – May 20, 5:00 | 15 |
| May 22, 8:00 – May 23, 6:00 | 23 |
| May 26, 0:00 – 20:00 | 21 |
| May 28, 7:00 – May 29, 0:00 | 18 |
| May 31, 7:00 – May 31, 23:00 | 17 |
| Out of a total of 744 hours | 348 Hours |
Date Posted: May 31, 2021
There was one earthquake of magnitude 6.9 and higher in May, as listed below. It missed the prediction date by about 14 hours.
May 21: Region: Southern Qinghai, China, Geographic coordinates: 34.586N, 98.255E, Magnitude: 7.4, Universal Time (UTC): 21 May 2021 18:04:14, Time near the Epicenter: 22 May 2021 02:04:14
June 2021
Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of June 2021 are provided below and for the rest of the year predictions are scheduled to be added in future when the model is expected to be developed with a reasonable degree of confidence. Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).
| Date and Time (GMT) | Duration, hours |
| June 1, 00:00 – 14:00 | 15 |
| June 4, 2:00 – June 5, 4:00 | 27 |
| June 7, 9:00 – June 8, 4:00 | 20 |
| June 11, 22:00 – June 12, 23:00 | 26 |
| June 16, 15:00 – June 17, 9:00 | 19 |
| June 18, 16:00 – June 19, 15:00 | 24 |
| June 20, 5:00 – June 24, 11:00 | 103 |
| June 29, 3:00 – 17:00 | 15 |
| Out of a total of 720 hours | 249 Hours |
Date Posted: June 30, 2021
There was no earthquake of magnitude 6.9 and higher in June.
July 2021
Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of July 2021 are provided below and for the rest of the year predictions are scheduled to be added in future when the model is expected to be developed with a reasonable degree of confidence. Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).
| Date and Time (GMT) | Duration, hours |
| July 1, 09:00 – July 2, 11:00 | 27 |
| July 3, 18:00 – July 6, 11:00 | 66 |
| July 9, 4:00 – July 10, 4:00 | 25 |
| July 13, 1:00 – July 15, 0:00 | 48 |
| July 15, 21:00 – July 16, 20:00 | 24 |
| July 21, 18:00 – July 23, 5:00 | 36 |
| July 26, 15:00 – July 27, 17:00 | 27 |
| July 28, 17:00 – July 29, 18:00 | 26 |
| July 31, 19:00 – 24:00 | 6 |
| Out of a total of 744 hours | 285 Hours |
Date Posted: July 31, 2021
There was one earthquake of magnitude 8.2 in July and it occurred on July 29 as below and it occurred on the on July 29, 6:15 Universal time.
July 29: Region: Alaska Peninsula, Geographic coordinates: 55.474N, 157.917W, Magnitude: 8.2, Universal Time (UTC): 29 Jul 2021 06:15:50, Time near the Epicenter: 28 Jul 2021 22:15:50
August 2021
Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of August 2021 are provided below. Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).
| Date and Time (GMT) | Duration, hours |
| Aug 1, 0:00 – Aug 2, 7:00 | 32 |
| Aug 4, 23:00 – Aug 6, 11:00 | 37 |
| Aug 8, 4:00 – Aug 9, 22:00 | 43 |
| Aug 12, 2:00 – Aug 13, 1:00 | 24 |
| Aug 17 22:00 – Aug 20, 8:00 | 59 |
| Aug 23, 0:00 – Aug 24, 9:00 | 34 |
| Aug 25, 1:00 – Aug 26, 2:00 | 26 |
| Aug 28, 17:00 – Aug 30, 5:00 | 37 |
| Out of a total of 744 hours | 292 Hours |
Date Posted: August 31, 2021
While there were eight earthquakes of magnitude 6.9 and higher in August, two pairs of them occurred within less than an hour apart and therefore they are counted as one thus giving a total of 6. All eight occurred as below with two pairs on August 12 and 14.
While the model missed 4 out of 8, this month’s data provided a great opportunity to improve the model performance. The improved model captures all of the earthquakes of 6.9 and higher occurred so far this year.
August 11: Region: Mindanao, Philippines, Geographic coordinates: 6.455N, 126.742E, Magnitude: 7.1, Universal Time (UTC): 11 Aug 2021 17:46:14, Time near the Epicenter: 12 Aug 2021 01:46:14
August 12 at 18:32 UTC: Region: South Sandwich Islands region, Geographic coordinates: 57.596S, 25.187W, Magnitude: 7.5, Universal Time (UTC): 12 Aug 2021 18:32:55, Time near the Epicenter: 12 Aug 2021 16:32:55
August 12 at 18:35 UTC: Region: South Sandwich Islands region, Geographic coordinates: 58.416S, 25.321W, Magnitude: 8.1, Universal Time (UTC): 12 Aug 2021 18:35:20, Time near the Epicenter: 12 Aug 2021 16:35:20
August 14 at 12:29 UTC: Region: Haiti region, Geographic coordinates: 18.352N, 73.480W, Magnitude: 7.2, Universal Time (UTC): 14 Aug 2021 12:29:09, Time near the Epicenter: 14 Aug 2021 08:29:09
August 14 at 11:57 UTC: Region: Alaska Peninsula, Geographic coordinates: 55.084N, 157.540W, Magnitude: 6.9, Universal Time (UTC): 14 Aug 2021 11:57:44, Time near the Epicenter: 14 Aug 2021 03:57:44
August 16: Region: South Sandwich Islands region, Geographic coordinates: 58.381S, 23.332W, Magnitude: 6.9, Universal Time (UTC): 16 Aug 2021 11:10:36, Time near the Epicenter: 16 Aug 2021 09:10:36
August 18: Region: Vanuatu, Geographic coordinates: 14.892S, 167.085E, Magnitude: 6.8, Universal Time (UTC): 18 Aug 2021 10:10:05, Time near the Epicenter: 18 Aug 2021 21:10:05
August 22: Region: South Sandwich Islands region, Geographic coordinates: 60.303S, 24.999W, Magnitude: 7.0, Universal Time (UTC): 22 Aug 2021 21:33:21, Time near the Epicenter: 22 Aug 2021 19:33:21
September 2021
Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of September 2021 are provided below and these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).
| Date and Time (GMT) | Duration, hours |
| Sept 1, 14:00 – Sept 2, 11:00 | 22 |
| Sept 4, 11:00 – Sept 5, 2:00 | 16 |
| Sept 7, 10:00 – Sept 11, 0:00 | 87 |
| Sept 13, 8:00 – Sept 15, 13:00 | 54 |
| Sept 18, 13:00 – Sept 24, 18:00 | 150 |
| Sept 26, 17:00 – Sept 29, 19:00 | 74 |
| Out of a total of 720 hours | 403 Hours |
Date Posted: September 30, 2021
There was only one earthquake of magnitude 6.9 and higher in September and it occurred on September 8 at 01:47 GMT as below and it did occur on a predicted date and time.
September 8: Region: near the coast of Guerrero, Mexico, Geographic coordinates:16.950N, 99.788W, Magnitude: 7.0, Universal Time (UTC): 8 Sep 2021 01:47:47, Time near the Epicenter: 7 Sep 2021 20:47:47
September 2021
Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of October 2021 are provided below and these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).
October 2021
| Date and Time (GMT) | Duration, hours |
| Oct 2, 23:00 – Oct 3, 14:00 | 16 |
| Oct 4, 9:00 – Oct 8, 13:00 | 101 |
| Oct 11, 0:00 – Oct 15, 22:00 | 118 |
| Oct 16, 6:00 – Oct 22, 4:00 | 142 |
| Oct 24, 8:00 – Oct 26, 0:00 | 40 |
| Oct 26, 5:00 – Oct 27, 3:00 | 23 |
| Out of a total of 744 hours | 440 Hours |
Date Posted: October 31, 2021
There were two earthquakes of magnitude 6.9 and higher in October and they occurred as below and one of them occurred on the predicted date and time.
October 2: Region: Vanuatu region, Geographic coordinates: 21.104S, 174.894E, Magnitude: 7.3, Universal Time (UTC): 2 Oct 2021 06:29:19, Time near the Epicenter: 2 Oct 2021 19:29:19
October 11: Region: Alaska Peninsula, Geographic coordinates: 56.258N, 156.553W, Magnitude: 6.9, Universal Time (UTC):11 Oct 2021 09:10:25, Time near the Epicenter:11 Oct 2021 01:10:25
November 2021
Based on a new earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of November 2021 are provided below and these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).
November 2021
| Date and Time (GMT) | Duration, hours |
| Nov 1, 00:00 – Nov 2, 2:00 | 27 |
| Nov 2, 6:00 – Nov 4, 0:00 | 43 |
| Nov 7, 15:00 – Nov 9, 12:00 | 47 |
| Nov 10, 12:00 – Nov 12, 12:00 | 1 |
| Nov 19, 23:00 – Nov 22, 8:00 | 58 |
| Out of a total of 720 hours | 176 Hours |
Date Posted: November 30, 2021
There was one earthquakes of magnitude 7.5 in November (details below), it and missed the prediction date. But it allowed improve the model further by capturing all the earthquakes of 2021 with significant (very low p-value) improvement.
November 2: Region: northern Peru, Geographic coordinates: 4.490S, 76.846W, Magnitude: 7.5, Universal Time (UTC): 28 Nov 2021 10:52:13, Time near the Epicenter: 28 Nov 2021 05:52:13
December 2021
Based on a bit more aggressively tuned earthquake model (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates and time. Please note that these hourly predictions for the month of December 2021 are provided below and these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).
| Date and Time (GMT) | Duration, hours |
| Dec 1, 00:00 – 9:00 | 10 |
| Dec 4, 6:00 – 12:00 | 7 |
| Dec 7, 17:00 – Dec 8, 13:00 | 21 |
| Dec 9, 11:00 – Dec 10, 17:00 | 31 |
| Dec 17, 16:00 – Dec 19, 0:00 | 33 |
| Dec 22, 11:00 – 12:00 | 2 |
| Dec 27, 4:00 – Dec 30, 7:00 | 76 |
| Out of a total of 744 hours | 180 Hours |
Date Posted: December 31, 2022
There were two earthquakes of magnitude 6.9 and higher in December (details below), one occurred on the predicted time while the one missed the prediction.
December 14: Region: Flores Sea, Geographic coordinates:7.603S, 122.200E, Magnitude:7.3 Universal Time (UTC): 14 Dec 2021 03:20:24,Time near the Epicenter:14 Dec 2021 11:20:24
December 29: Region: Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia, Geographic coordinates:7.592S, 127.581E, Magnitude: 7.3, Universal Time (UTC): 29 Dec 2021 18:25:52, Time near the Epicenter: 30 Dec 2021 03:25:52