Date Posted: June 30, 2025

Presented here are two models: Most Aggressive and Aggressive.  Based on these models (work is still in progress) the earthquake(s) of magnitude 6.9 or higher, if occur, are likely to occur on the following dates, times and at possible locations.  Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT).  Comments for June 2025 predictions click here. 

While work is still in progress, last few months results indicate the model seemed to be more promising with less number of hours while not missing earthquakes of 6.9 or higher magnitude.

                                    Please note that these dates and time refer to the Universal time (GMT)

Most Aggressive Model                                                Aggressive Model

Start Time	End Time	Hours	Possible Earthquake Location	Start Time	End Time	Hours	Possible Earthquake Location
Jul 8   22:00	Jul 9   23:00	26	Alaska	Jul 1   21:00	Jul 2   4:00	8	Fiji, Alaska, Vanuatu, Brazil, Banda Sea, solomon islands
Jul 10   0:00	Jul 11   6:00	31	India	Jul 9   15:00	Jul 9   21:00	7	Alaska
				Jul 14   23:00	Jul 16   8:00	34	VanuatuSouth Georgia Island regionMexico
	Out of 744 Hours	57 Hours		Jul 24   20:00	Jul 25   7:00	12	TongaChile
				Jul 25   14:00	Jul 26   7:00	18	TongaChile
				Jul 26   14:00	Jul 28   9:00	44	New ZealandKermadec Islands regionTernate, Indonesia
					Out of 744 Hours	123 Hours

July 31, 2025

In July, there were five earthquakes of magnitude 6.9 or higher occurred as follow:

July 16: Region: Alaska Peninsula, Geographic coordinates: 54.549N, 160.472W, Magnitude: 7.3, Universal Time (UTC):16 Jul 2025  20:37:39, Time near the Epicenter (1): 16 Jul 2025  12:37:39

July 20: Region: off the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia, Geographic coordinates: 52.899N, 160.759E, Magnitude: 7.4, Universal Time (UTC): 20 Jul 2025  06:49:03, Time near the Epicenter (1): 20 Jul 2025  18:49:03

July 28: Region: Macquarie Island region, Geographic coordinates: 57.559S, 156.821E, Magnitude: 6.9, Universal Time (UTC): 28 Jul 2025  22:10:32, Time near the Epicenter (1): 29 Jul 2025  08:10:32

July 29: Region: off the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia, Geographic coordinates: 52.510N, 160.261E, Magnitude: 8.7, Universal Time (UTC): 29 Jul 2025  23:24:51, Time near the Epicenter (1): 30 Jul 2025  11:24:51

July 30 : Region: off the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia, Geographic coordinates: 52.082N, 160.080E, Magnitude: 6.9, Universal Time (UTC): 30 Jul 2025  00:09:54, Time near the Epicenter (1): 30 Jul 2025  12:09:54

Both models failed to capture any of these five earthquakes. The most aggressive model used only 57 hours out of 744 hours (less than 10%) and the less aggressive 123 out of 744. In defense of the less aggressive model it missed the first earthquake (July 16 one) by 12 hours and the third earthquake (July 28 one) 13 hours suggesting the model was a bit tighter. The second earthquake (July 20) didn’t make it because of my own mistake. I ovelooked important variable. The model certainly would have captured that earthquake. Of the last two earthqukes, the fifth one (July 30) was an after shock after to the big one of magnitude 8.7 in Kamchatka Peninsula. The big one, at least at this point is an anomaly to me.

The silver lining behind the model failure is that it certainly uncovered the area that I further need to look into to improve the model performance. It pushed me back again to the drawing board.